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Based on the buzz surrounding the movie when it was released — and the positive reviews it got just before — it certainly seemed like Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* (AKA, The New Avengers) was a hit. Yet, more than a month after it arrived in theaters, box office results are lower than Captain America: Brave New World, and reports estimate the movie is unlikely to break even considering how much it took to make and promote.

Six weeks after release, Thunderbolts* has grossed $377 million globally, putting it below the last Captain America, as well as Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, Lilo & Stitch, A Minecraft Movie, and global superheat Ne Zha 2 in terms of year-to-date gross. Domestically, it’s at $187 million as of writing, putting it below A Minecraft Movie, Lilo & Stitch, Captain America: Brave New World, and Sinners — with the Ryan Coogler movie currently the third most successful movie domestically with a $273.8 million haul since its April 18 release.

You have to wonder if Marvel should have waited for longer than four days after the movie's release to rebrand and repromote Thunderbolts* as The New Avengers. Maybe a second or third weekend push could have helped matters, even if only by reminding them that the movie was out there. 

If estimates are to be believed, Thunderbolts* will be the second Marvel Studios release in a row to fail to break even in its theatrical release — and the third out of four movies to do so, overall. 2023’s The Marvels also failed to break even on theatrical release, while 2024’s sole Marvel Studios release Deadpool & Wolverine was a massive hit for the studio. Captain America: Brave New World’s worldwide gross was $415 million, while it was estimated to need to hit $425 million to recoup production and promotional costs; that’s the same figure that Variety estimates Thunderbolts would need to make in order to break even, even on its production budget of around $180 million.

So, what does this mean for Marvel’s future? In the short term, very little — production is already underway on 2026’s Avengers: Doomsday, with the following year’s Avengers: Secret Wars set to begin immediately afterwards. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is set to begin production in August, although as a Sony/Marvel co-production, Marvel isn’t financially responsible for that movie. With three out of its last four movies underperforming, however, it’ll be unlikely that we won’t see Marvel pivot in some fashion moving forward, whether that’s trying to lower production costs, or being more selective with future projects... unless The Fantastic Four: First Steps outperforms already lofty expectations. (It's currently one of the most-anticipated movies of the summer, according to tracking.)

The future of the MCU as a whole is a mystery beyond this summer’s Fantastic Four: First Steps, the next Spider-Man movie, and the two big Avengers releases. Fans believed that was to keep the mystery of what happens in Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars intact… but perhaps the studio isn’t entirely sure what shape tomorrow looks like, at this point, either.

Keep up to date on Popverse's Marvel coverage, with these highlights:

• The MCU needs Anya Taylor-Joy's Magik in it (and not just for the X-Men connection)
• How Disney+'s What If...? is the moonshot for the next 50 years of Marvel Studios & the MCU
• Marvel Studios has accidentally created a new Phase that predates Phases 1 - 6: the MCU Phase Zero
• Overgrown children of the atom: Marvel's X-Men can't evolve past their '90s commercial peak
• The biggest outstanding questions of the Marvel Studios' movies & TV shows
• Donald Trump is the landlord for Marvel's House of Ideas
• Marvel Studios swapping out Doctor Doom for Kang offers the chance to jettison the Multiverse Saga
• What Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige is saying (and not saying) about the MCU X-Men franchise says a lot about the future of the Mutant Saga
• If Marvel is going to bring Loki back for Secret Wars, it's time to give him an upgrade
• In 2021, Sony's boss said people won't miss Spider-Man in its Spider-adjacent movie. Turns out, they do.