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The biggest event of the year in gaming is finally here. As the Nintendo Switch 2’s launch looms over the entire industry, everyone – from players to journalists to Nintendo themselves – is wondering how (and if) the company can replicate the incredible success of one of the best-selling consoles of all time. And the success of the Switch – not a turbulent gaming market or Trump’s weird obsession with tariffs – is going to be the biggest hurdle the Switch 2 has to overcome.

The success of the Nintendo Switch was a surprise - and a gamble for Nintendo

It is hard to explain today, with Nintendo enjoying such a comfortable position in the gaming industry, that the Switch’s launch was seen as a do-or-die moment for the company. The Wii U, while not the apocalyptic failure that the Virtual Boy was, failed by almost every metric. It sold poorly and failed to replicate the success of the Wii to such a scale that Nintendo President Satoru Iwata cut his salary by 50% and other executives saw similar reductions in pay to keep the company afloat. 

Ignoring how that simple act feels unthinkable at any other gaming company, there was serious discussion in the aftermath of the Wii U that Nintendo shouldn’t be in the console business at all. They’re still one of the best game developers out there; let them focus on making amazing Mario and Legend of Zelda titles for the PlayStation or Xbox consoles. That was the argument at the time and there is a certain amount of logic to it. Consoles have a remarkably poor profit margin, so maybe Nintendo was better off just making great games, right?

If the Switch wasn’t a success, there is a good chance that it would be the last Nintendo console ever. But its success was, in a small way, built on the failure of the Wii U because, while the Wii U sold terribly, that didn’t stop Nintendo from making some phenomenal games for the console. Mario Kart 8. Bayonetta 2. Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze. All of these games were lauded as some of the best in their long-running series and, more importantly, became huge successes on the Switch.

What Nintendo ended up with when the Switch launched was a library of games with great reviews that no one really played. It didn’t take a genius to figure out that the best way to sell their new console was to port those games over. Early in the Switch’s lifecycle, Mario Kart 8 and Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze got a new release and – surprise, surprise – sold well on the console. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild was given a simultaneous release on both the Wii U and Switch and became one of the signature games on the new console.

Normally, when a new console hits, fans have to wait a year or two before it has a library worth dropping a couple hundred dollars for, but the Switch landed with a stacked library that gave people an excuse to pick it up early. Which, in turn, meant developers would focus on the console more because it had a larger customer base. Which, again, helped sell the console, creating a cycle of success that never really ended for Nintendo.

The Nintendo Switch 2 doesn't have the one thing that made Switch a success at launch

Now, Nintendo doesn’t have the same built-in library of games to port over to the Switch 2. Sure, they’ve announced enhanced versions of games like Mario Party Jamboree and the two mainline Legend of Zelda titles for the Switch, but they probably won’t be the same console-selling hits for Nintendo. They already sold well for the Switch and no one but the most dedicated of fanboys is going to buy a $450 system to play games they already have.

This isn’t to say that the Switch 2 isn’t going to be a success. The backward compatibility with the Switch makes it easier to justify players making the jump to the new console without losing their previous Switch library. Mario Kart World looks like a load of fun. The Switch 2 has enough new features and fixes the few problems I had with the original Switch that it feels worth the cost. I’m excited to get the Switch 2 even if I probably won’t pick one up until late in 2025 or early 2026 for reasons that mostly stem from having a toddler to look after.

We won’t know for a few years just how successful the Switch 2 really is (most Nintendo consoles sell best in their third year on the market) but I don’t think we’re looking at a flop. I do, however, think that Nintendo is going to have to work harder to build up its library of games, particularly exclusives and first-party games rather than remasters of existing titles. That is going to be the thing that proves if Nintendo can repeat the success of the Switch for the next console generation.

You don't need to beat the game to prepare for the next one—here are all the major new and upcoming games coming our way.